One Network Has Three of the Worst Bets Among New Fall Shows, Based on a Forecasting Method That Proved to Be Accurate Last Season -- Here Are the Predicted Best and Worst Performers TheWrap
NewMediaMetrics is sizing up the new fall shows using a forecasting method that worked well last season. TheWrap.com reports that the firm is using attachment theory to predict which new shows will succeed and which will fail, gathering indications of audience reception based on how immediately people connect with a show's premise.
Last season, the company predicted that NBC's "Revolution" would score well with viewers, and it turned out to be one of the fall's biggest successes.
The story notes, "Networks must be taking their checkbooks out, right? Not exactly. NewMediaMetrics has worked with NBC, Fox and FX in the past, as well as a number of other cable networks. But currently, only a few cable stations -- such as Ovation TV, Fuse TV and TVOne -- employ the company."
As for how it works, the piece notes, "After networks unveil their new shows to advertisers at their May upfront presentations, NewMediaMetrics and a marketing partner present loglines describing show concepts to 3,000 people across the U.S. They rate their emotional attachment to an idea on a scale of 1 to 10. For returning shows, only the show title is provided."
So which new shows will do well in the fall? NewMediaMetrics ranks CBS's "The Crazy Ones," starring Robin Williams, as the best bet for the 2013-14 season, followed by NBC's "The Michael J. Fox Show" and Fox's "Sleepy Hollow."
The three worst-performing shows, according to the prediction, will be three ABC shows: "Super Fun Night," "Trophy Wife" and "Back in the Game."