TVB to Revise TV Spot Revenue Forecasts

By Michele Greppi

The Television Bureau of Advertising is revising its TV spot revenue predictions for 2009 and 2010 that were issued Sept. 4, just before the economic crisis sent business dominos falling far and wide.

Frank Comerford, the TVB board vice chairman who will succeed Meredith Broadcasting Group President Paul Karpowicz as chairman Jan. 1, suggested that TVB President Chris Rohrs and his staff revisit the economic pundits and prognosticators who in late summer had foreseen a decline of 2% to 5% in total spot TV revenues in 2009 and ask them for predictions that take into account the extreme volatility of the last month.

The TVB had predicted declines of 7% to 10% in national spot revenues, with a range of a 1% decline to a 2% increase in local spot revenues compared to this year.

For 2010, the TVB had predicted increases of from 12.5% to 16.5% in national spot and from 1.5% to 5.5% in local spot.

Like his hundreds of counterparts around the country, Mr. Comerford, the president of platform development and commercial operations for the 10 stations of the NBC Local Media Division, was deep in the process off drawing up future budgets and business plans even as the foundations of the TV business—and those of the automotive, real estate and other industries on which it is so reliant—were cracking.

“I have to do projections on four different businesses in 10 different markets, so I need facts,” Mr. Comerford said.

“We originally looked at 2009 and 2010 as almost a W-shaped recession, a little downtick now with a small false positive for maybe a quarter or so, going back up a little bit, then back down on the deeper side. Now, I see a U,” the local broadcasting veteran said. “I don’t see that false positive in the middle.”

In its Oct. 11 notice to members of the planned revisions, TVB Communications VP Gary Belis said, “Given the instability in all markets, however, it's unlikely that new numbers will come together very soon. In the interim, TVB is issuing a caveat addendum to our 09/10 forecasts, that those numbers are subject to change pending circumstances in the consumer economy and the advertising marketplace.”

Mr. Belis promised amended forecasts “as soon as market visibility allows.”

Mr. Comerford expects it will take a little while before revisions are seen because “I don’t think any economist is willing to take a gamble right now.”