The date when online will be the No. 1 ad category, surpassing television, will be 2017, according to a new forecast.

Media Life reports that the new forecast comes from media analyst Michael Nathanson of MoffettNathanson Research. Nathanson “predicts online advertising will increase at an annual rate of 12 percent over the next five years, while TV spending will decrease by an average of 3 percent per year during that time,” the story reports.

In his new study, Nathanson writes: “Since 2013, there has been a shift in media budgets away from national TV, which has pushed growth down to levels previously unseen in a non-recessionary economy.”

Nathanson adds: “The recent collapse in national linear TV ratings, lower upfront and scatter pricing, the rise of mobile, social and online video ad platforms, and a TV ecosystem that has been slow to modernize, have created a perfect storm.”

The rising popularity of digital devices has played a key role in helping to shift media consumption through social media and the proliferation of online media. The report notes that from 2011-2013, during the post-recession recovery, television advertising grew by $5 billion while digital grew much faster, adding $11 billion.

“Nathanson also notes the impressive targeting abilities of online ads, which ultimately may be the key to the medium’s longer-term success,” Media Life adds.