Media Life

Which New Shows Will Make It and Which Will Fail? New Study Offers a Simple — and Effective — Way of Predicting; Here Are the Likely Winners and Losers

Oct 7, 2015  •  Post A Comment

A new study applies a simple test to predict which of the new fall series will survive, and Media Life magazine reports that the system appears to be accurate.

The study comes from the smart remote app maker Peel, and examines the shows in a purely objective manner.

“What Peel examined, based on its database of 12 million active users, is which shows actually held their audience during the first 15 minutes of the premiere, something that Nielsen’s data doesn’t break down,” the story reports. “Peel then used that information to calculate which shows are most likely to stick around and which are most likely to be canceled.”

Peel’s results tend to match how well the shows did in week two. Topping the list of “likely winners,” along with the percent of viewers who stayed tuned to the premiere after 15 minutes, are: “Limitless” (CBS, 73.8%), “Rosewood” (Fox, 73.3%), “Blindspot” (NBC, 72.5%), “The Muppets” (ABC, 72.2%).

Here are the shows at the top of the list of “likely losers”: “Blood & Oil” (ABC, 60%), “Minority Report” (Fox, 62.9%), “Life in Pieces” (CBS, 63.3%), “The Player” (NBC, 65%).


One Comment

  1. Let’s not jump to conclusions just yet. I spent many years in radio, which is not that dissimilar to TV. It appears that this study is only measuring the phenomenon of “sampling”, which does not necessarily hold up as predictive for season-long viewing.

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