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The Way-Too-Early Emmy Predictions: Who Should Win and Who Will Win TheWrap

After a successful round of Emmy predictions way back in May 2012, one media outlet is giving it another shot with a set of “way-too-early” Emmy predictions for 2013. Writing on TheWrap.com, Tim Molloy notes that last time around, four out of the seven predictions turned out to be right.

“This year’s races, though, are much harder to call because of a huge wild card: Netflix, the streaming service that entered the game with the year’s best new drama, ‘House of Cards,’ and the return of ‘Arrested Development,’” Molloy writes. “Will TV industry professionals roll out the welcome mat for an online service that could cost them their jobs? We have no idea.”

For outstanding comedy series, Molloy predicts the winning streak for ABC’s “Modern Family,” which has won three years in a row, will continue. But who should win? “For now, I'm saying ‘Veep,’” Molloy writes."But I’m writing this right before getting to see all those ‘Arrested’ episodes.”

Lead actress in a comedy is a category that’s especially strong, the piece notes, with Molloy pickin “Veep’s” Julia Louis-Dreyfus to win a close battle with Lena Dunham of HBO’s “Girls.”

Molloy writes: “Louis-Dreyfus will probably get an easy repeat for two reasons: First, she’s excellent as the unabashedly self-centered title character. And second, voters will ding Dunham for being naked a lot when she arguably doesn’t need to be and for her character’s carefully crafted annoyingness.”

Who should win, according to Molloy? Either Louis-Dreyfus or Laura Dern, for HBO’s “Enlightened.”

In the category of outstanding lead actor in a comedy, Molloy’s “should win” and “will win” selections are the same. “It’s time to recognize Louis C.K. as an actor,” he writes. “Actually, the time was last year or the year before, but that’s OK. The comedian and his brilliant FX series, ‘Louie,’ were still new and unfamiliar to viewers then. Now he has reached the media saturation point, and voters may be ready to recognize his -- not using this word lightly -- genius.”

Outstanding drama series looks to Molloy like a wide-open race. “Last year’s winner, ‘Homeland,’ was perceived by many critics to suffer a sophomore slump,” he writes. “If Emmy voters agree, that could throw open the race. The ‘Homeland’ win broke a four-year streak for AMC’s ‘Mad Men,’ which likely won’t win again until next season, its last one.”

Molloy’s prediction in the category is a trophy for PBS’s “Downton Abbey.” But who should win it? “The gorgeous, understated ‘Boardwalk Empire,’ which TheWrap picked as the best show of 2012. It’s not as flashy as its competition, but is much richer in its subtleties. It’s as smart as people think ‘Downton Abbey’ is.”

“Mad Men” will get recognition for lead actress in a drama, if Molloy’s prediction holds up. “It will be laughable if Elisabeth Moss isn’t nominated for ‘Mad Men,’ a show on which she’s now the de facto audience surrogate by virtue of Don Draper becoming such a monster,” he writes, predicting that Moss will win, and adding that either she or Robin Wright of “House of Cards” should win.

The “will win” and “should win” categories come together again in lead actor in a drama, where Molloy sees Kevin Spacey of Netflix’s “House of Cards” coming through: “There’s a very elegant solution here for voters who want to recognize ‘House of Cards’ without giving away the store: Reward Kevin Spacey for his mesmerizing performance as a scheming congressman.”

Finally, Molloy sees NBC’s “The Voice” winning reality-competition program, and deserving the win -- even with CBS’s “The Amazing Race” having won the award in nine of the 10 years of the category’s existence. “Wait, you say: ‘The Amazing Race’ is still excellent, and it isn’t fair that NBC should win with a show that borrows so many elements from Fox’s ‘American Idol,’" Molloy writes. “We agree. But it’s time for Emmy voters to try something new, and the current incarnation of ‘The Voice’ is more unpredictable and inspiring than the current incarnation of ‘Idol.’ Not fair, we know.”

Please click on the link in the first paragraph to read more of Molloy’s comments on the contenders in these categories.