Fox Broadcasting Co., poised to win its first sweeps victory ever for the key 18 to 49 demographic, already has its sights on a bigger goal-to win the entire broadcast season.
Buoyed by blockbusters “Joe Millionaire” and “American Idol,” Fox turned in a spectacular performance in February. Its sweeps rating in the demographic through Feb. 19 trounced NBC by nearly a full rating point, 5.8 vs. the peacock network’s 4.9.
Though the sweeps run though Feb. 26, program analysts estimate Fox could post a 5.6 or 5.7 rating among adults 18 to 49. That would best by NBC, expected to post a rating between 4.9 and 5.1 in the demo. Sweeps results are used to set ad rates for local stations and can also boost a network’s image with national advertisers.
“It’s extraordinary,” said Brad Adgate, senior VP-audience research, Horizon Media, New York. “They are really going to crush the competition.”
Winning the broadcast year would mark a major turnaround for Fox, which began the season delivering 20 percent fewer ratings points than the previous year. It’s also a Herculean task. Sweeps results are used to set ad rates for local stations and can also boost a network’s image with national advertisers.
Through Feb. 20, No. 2 Fox posted a 4.2 rating among adults 18 to 49, up from 4.0 a year before. And though NBC’s rating in that demo during the period dropped from 5.4 last year, it’s still well ahead of Fox at 4.6.
Mr. Adgate gave Fox about a 40 percent chance of winning the season.
The network hopes its newest reality entry, “Married by America,” which makes its debut March 3, can pull in “Joe Millionaire” numbers. That show averaged a 14.7 rating among adults 18 to 49 for three telecasts during the February sweeps. The finale was the highest-rated entertainment program since CBS’s “Survivor” finale in August 2000.
Fox insiders are banking on a 16 share for “Married by America,” for which viewers will play matchmaker, compared with a 19 share for “Joe Millionaire.” But “Married by America,” like “Joe,” is a reality show, a genre that mainstream advertisers tend to avoid despite big ratings-and Fox’s slate is heavy with reality shows.
The network heavily promoted the new show during the sweeps, particularly via such high-profile platforms as “American Idol,” which itself averages a 9.1 rating among adults 18 to 49.
The much-hyped Feb. 20 “Michael Jackson Interview: The Footage You Were Not AlIowed To See,” did a 6.1 rating among adults 18 to 49, third behind “Survivor” with an 8.9 rating and an 8.1 for several NBC programs, including a special “Friends.”