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Stations in the Balance

Mar 8, 2009  •  Post A Comment

With the local advertising market in the tank, everyone knows times are tough for television stations.
The problem is that business conditions aren’t likely to get better any time soon, and that has industry executives talking about more station owners declaring bankruptcy, getting taken over by their banks or, in some cases, shutting down operations.
“There are bound to be bankruptcies in broadcasting as there are in every other industry,” said Frank Kalil of Kalil & Co., a leading station broker. “Certainly there are problems and we’re dealing with them.”
A number of stations can’t support their debt load, said Barry Baker, managing director at Boston Ventures, which owns and operates several stations in small markets.
Beyond over-leveraged operations, those in small markets without major network affiliations are at greatest risk, other broadcast executives said.
“You go much beyond the top five or six [stations in the market] and those are always very difficult,” said Tim Pecaro, founder of Bond & Pecaro, a consultancy that appraises broadcast properties. “If you don’t have one of the top four networks, or Univision or The CW, it’s a tough business. You’re dealing with fractions of the market and you’ve got to be in a pretty big market to live off the crumbs.”
Mr. Pecaro said some big markets have been hit hard as well, including previously fast-growing locations such as California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida. Industrial areas in the upper Midwest also are hurting.
“I’d hate to be running television stations in those kinds of markets today, because the floor has dropped out of advertising. Nobody knows where the bottom is,” he said.
Mr. Kalil said that in some cases, his company has been asked by owners and banks to try to sell troubled stations, but securing financing in the current economic environment is an issue.
“With the current owner being overextended, with advertising revenues tightening up, it’s a matter of how long they can hold on,” he said.
But if they can’t, what happens next? There are some opportunists sitting on cash who could make a go of it where other owners have faltered.
“The question then becomes, do the banks really want to run these things,” said Mr. Pecaro. “Those people who were out acquiring are generally good operators. They’re experienced operators in a once-in-a-lifetime circumstance. And who might be better to run them than these guys?”
For stations that can’t make a go of it as a traditional broadcasting business, other options are emerging with new technologies.
On a panel in January at the National Association of Television Program Executives conference, Warner Bros. Domestic Distribution President Ken Werner mentioned the possibility that the economics of the station business could lead some to go dark. That would open the door for new uses of their signal spectrum.
Amid all the bad news for stations, it’s important to note that stations still represent a profitable business proposition. While growth may stall, Mr. Kalil said most stations remain in the black.
“If they can adjust, they can wait this thing out—and I truly believe that it’s a matter of waiting it out—business will improve,” he said.
“The thing about broadcasters is even though they’re going to be in a lot of trouble this year, many of them are still going to cash flow,” said Mr. Pecaro. “It’s not like the newspapers. Their fixed-cost levels are nowhere near as high. It’s just the cash flows aren’t going to be anywhere near where they were a couple of years ago.”
The list of station groups that haven’t been able to maintain adequate cash flow is growing.
Last year, big station owner Tribune Co. went bankrupt. Tribune, which also owns newspapers, took on massive amounts of debt in a leveraged employee buyout masterminded by financier Sam Zell.
Equity Media Holding, which owns 31 television stations, sought Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in December after failing to sell its stations. Young Broadcasting, which owns 10 CBS and ABC affiliates, filed for Chapter 11 last month. The company listed liabilities of more than $500 million and said the filing was designed to bring its debt in line with “current economic realities.”
Debt is a problem for many station owners. In a January report, Moody’s warned that with advertising revenue declining, “Many broadcasters will not generate the [earnings] to comply with financial covenants in bank loan agreements, cause them to require waivers and amendments or face default.”
Moody’s predicted banks will be unlikely to amend terms with very highly leveraged companies or those that are burning through cash to fund day-to-day operations, leading to more bankruptcies.
It doesn’t appear the advertising market will turn around to save struggling operators.
Certainly it doesn’t seem that the advertising picture will improve any time soon to bail out local broadcasters in trouble.
BIA Advisory Services last week forecast that local advertising revenues will fall at a compounded annual rate of 1.4% from $155.3 billion in 2008 to $144.4 billion in 2013. Traditional media, which lumps in TV, radio, newspapers and direct mail, will decrease at a 4.5% rate over that period.
Representatives for media companies that own station groups and broadcast networks declined to comment.
Beyond cutting staff, local station managers are trying a number of approaches to meet the financial challenges.
A big chore is compensating for the loss of automotive advertising.
“You’re scrambling to try to make up that revenue that hasn’t come back,” said Tim Larson, general manager of KRDO-TV in Colorado Springs, Colo.
Mr. Larson said a lot of auto ads come from the national side, so stations need to look locally in order to fill the shortfall.
“You try to go directly to the advertiser, particularly the local guy, and say, ‘This is what we can do for you,’” he said. “And you have to sell that hard.”
That’s brought a cultural shift in his sales efforts, with more outbound calls and less order-taking from inbound calls.
“It’s not that way anymore. You’ve got to get out and you’ve got to sell, you’ve got to sell a lot of stuff,” he said.
Mr. Kalil said he believes that stations can help themselves by stepping up their local ad sales efforts.
“I truly believe that the solution, if there is an immediate, automatic solution, would be for every station to hire three to five more salespeople tomorrow,” Mr. Kalil said.
Other companies are looking for ways to spread cost over more stations.
Mark DeSantis, general manager of WEEK-TV in Peoria, Ind., said its owner, Granite Broadcasting, has consolidated certain operations. For example, master control operations have been combined in multistation hubs and his weekend weather is being produced in Fort Wayne and uploaded back to Peoria.
Mr. DeSantis also said he’s talking with other GMs in the area to pool resources on news coverage, for instance, sending one camera crew to gather footage.
“This is the worst business climate that we’ve seen since we’ve been in broadcasting,” he said, adding he’s confident things are going to rebound.
Reducing the number of stations in a market might also make the survivors more financially sound.
“We need duopoly. We need consolidation. There’s no question about that,” Mr. Kalil said. “There are a lot of things that we can save money on in the industry by combining these properties in a given market.”
In many markets, more duopolies can’t be formed because of Federal Communications Commission regulations. Mr. Baker thinks the industry should go even further than duopoly.
“I think ultimately there should be a move to an agency system, where stations just say we’re sharing news, we’re sharing back office, we are sharing everything, otherwise we can’t be in business,” he said. “And hopefully the new FCC will say, ‘You know what, they won’t be in business so we might have less editorial voices in local news, but at least we’ll have three separate sets of anchors.’”
The prospect of stations pushing cable operators to get more money for the retransmission of local signals is unlikely to fill the void for broadcasters.
“I think we’re at a real turning point when you combine viewership lost to online video with the total financial situation and the lack of advertising,” Mr. Baker said. “All the retrans money in the world can’t make up for it.”

137 Comments

  1. We’re seeing a sea change in the TV business. At some point it will be obvious that localism – which is about 99& news content – can be provided by the NY1’s and Bay News 9’s of the world cheaper and more efficiently than by the traditional station-in-a-box with its tower-on-the-hill.
    Entertainment and world-state-regional news can be delivered from producer to home via cable, satellite and internet easily and efficiently. News can be inserted from producer to the mass cable/satellite/internet world by a simple codec taking up about an inch of space in an equipment rack, rather than by a bricks & morter monolith at the corner of Main and State Street in Anytown, USA.
    Sorry folks, our days are fairly numbered in the TV business as we knew it. Sad, but the facts are as they are. In man ways I feel like the family in the 50’s who loved train travel, but saw the streamliners going away as the skies filled with passenger planes.
    Tom Scanlan
    Retired TV Engineer, GM, Station Group Owner (1962-2004)

  2. Local TV was, is, and will always be the strongest, most powerful media in America. Their distribution of their content cannot be touched. The only folks forecasting the demise of local broadcast TV are selling some less efficient form of distribution. The most dangerous issue facing local broadcast is the impact of accountants running the station groups. They have no concept of building revenue, they can only shrink costs to match their declining revenue. The death spiral of business. They do not know that WTBS-Atlanta begat CNN, in a down market. Broadcasters have vision. Accountants figure out how to finance them. That’s how the broadcast world works…best
    We need to get back to that and stop relying on weekend paid program at the expense of audience share.

  3. I disagree with Tom Scanlon and as I’ve disagreed with similar comments from retired broadcasters over the years after they have been put out to pasture. Former general manager Jim Armisted said the same thing back in the mid 70’s after he left WRDW. Our local news ratings are as strong as ever and we are still the only free TV available, and in this economy that is not insignificant as more and more are dropping their paid subscription TV. Our advertisers (and politicians) still get excellent results and we are still making a profit even though our business is pacing at record lows. Cable can not produce local news cheaper and is having just as tough a go as many broadcasters, with Comcast recently folding their local news operation. Broadcasters – not cable channels – are and will be for years to come indispensible corporate citizens, always there to help with community service and providing local news and information and life saving emergency reports… the engine of the free enterprise system and the backbone of the democracy. As many have said, our local station brands are ours until we decide to give them up and I don’t see any strong station handing their market franchise to a cable channel anytime soon. TV is by far the most effective, efficient advertising medium. When business starts to rebound, local broadcast TV stations will be there to reap the benefit of the growing advertising pie, guaranteeing a long and prosperous future.

  4. The problem is there was very little selling on the National side. CPPs were high and buyers in many cases were young and would buy anything to post. Just throw them some “Value added stuff and make up their post and we will get a big share” was the rep line on almost every buy.
    Here is an actual response from an agency planner when I asked her about plans for her automotive account in 2009: “we are no longer going to look at tabs or cpps, we have promised the client that every dollar we spend will generate a dollar in sales”, she stated proudly! Needless to say she was not happy when I suggested they should have been doing that all along.
    Unless you are in a metered market the NSI ratings are ESTIMATES, locally you have to sell ideas, you have to sell the concept “my product will sell your product or service” not my 3 is bigger than their 2; how many do you want?
    Watch as the local AEs begin to depend more and more on One Domain and other avail systems instead of creative selling.

  5. TV stations have been digging their graves for years. Local news is a disgrace – defined as crime, car wrecks, house fires, and endless weather hype. Stations have increased the commercial and promotional load in a half-hour newscast to around 11 minutes. Most of the spots are offensive local car dealers screaming at the viewer. In almost every market cumulative news demo ratings are falling because younger (under 60) viewers are not wasting their times with this drivel.

  6. Locally it seems to me it comes down to services delivered. Can local TV make people “walk in the door” or contact an advertiser to increase their sales? Perhaps it is really just the end of certain types of inefficient “shotgun” institutional ad approaches locally and stations have to get better at delivering a “call to action” as the internet does so well. The content and effectiveness of the ad/offer rather than how it’s delivered. Certainly there is still a case to be made that local spots and delivery have a huge capability to achieve that for certain retail categories. It remains for the local station to be the “expert” in thier market to help local businesses achieve new sales, better than any other medium. Where they can’t, let those advertisers go where they should. Focus on the successes and create more.

  7. To Paul Quinn: You are dead on! Every TV station should put your one paragraph comment on the door going in to the station. Beautiful!!

  8. I’ll second that comment from Paul Q. You’re right on the money! Local TV stations have a bright future ahead and are irreplaceable to the communities that they serve.
    Troy S. Woody
    KCBY TV CBS 11

  9. my take is mr.quinn’s rosy optimism and mr.scanlan’s scorched earth assessments are both off. quinn’s central pa. operation is a little insulated from many of the realities others are facing today. i wouldnt call cn8 a local news operation. the bottom line is those stations that deliver quality local content will remain strong, but never ‘indispensable’.

  10. I agree with Paul Quinn, particularly because Broadcast TV has free, huge reach. This characteristic is becomming more important every day. Pat Pattison (and internet service vendor who preys on TV stations with his dog and pony show) is promoting a self-serving and incorrect point of view that , “stations have to get better at delivering a “call to action” as the internet does so well.” That’s crap. Without TV to direct viewers to sites, who would know which of a billion sites to pick? Imagine if TV stations enforced their programming exclusivity within their markets and sued every website stealing their content. Imagine no TV station station saying, “Turn us off and go play with your computer.” Pat Pattison would have no free content, no free promotion, and no business to take from TV. Personal TV viewing still beats internet usage by a four to one margin. Without TV stations to promote his service, Pat Pattison would be out of a job.

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