Record levels of TV ad spending are in the forecast, according to Moody’s Investors Service, but that spending is coming next year, not this year.
The company’s latest forecast anticipates a drop of 6% to 9% for broadcast outlets in 2015, the Los Angeles Times reports.
“Growth in national advertising has stalled as marketers shift their dollars to digital outlets and cable TV channels,” the Times reports. “Local advertising, the key driver for television stations, should offset the weakness in national advertising, according to Moody’s report released early Wednesday.”
But 2016 is poised to set records, with national elections driving the turnaround, according to a Moody’s analyst.
The report quotes Carl Salas, senior credit officer for Moody’s, saying: “Political advertising revenue defies gravity.”
As part of the standard cycle, with 2015 lacking major political races and also being a non-Olympic year, revenues will be down. On the other hand, come 2016, the Times notes, “Candidates for the U.S. presidency, Congress and state offices will spend large sums throughout the primary season and for the general election.”
Moody’s has not made a formal estimate for 2016, but Salas hinted that political spending will surpass $3.5 billion, well up from the $2.9 billion spent on congressional and state races in 2014. Two-thirds of the spending is expected to be on TV.