A professor using a formula that has proved to be accurate in every presidential election but one since 1912 said all the way back in February that Donald Trump had at least a 97.6% chance of winning the presidency if he became the GOP nominee.
The New York Post ran the story back on Feb. 25, writing: “Political-science Professor Helmut Norpoth, of Stony Brook University on Long Island, created a statistical model for presidential elections using candidates’ primary results and other data to predict the victors, and he’s making Trump an all-but-sure thing this year.”
The story adds: “The prediction wizard told university alumni gathered in Manhattan [Feb. 22] that Trump has a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton and a 99 percent chance of stomping Bernie Sanders, according to the school’s newspaper, The Statesman.”
The report notes that the formula measures candidates’ performance in caucuses and primaries, determining the level of party unity and voter excitement. It also takes into account that any party that has been in the White House for two consecutive terms is less likely to win another term.
Separately, The Washington Post reports today that Professor Allan Lichtman, the author of “The Keys to the White House,” also saw the Trump victory coming.
Lichtman predicted Trump’s win back in September, The Post reports, noting that the American University history professor has correctly predicted the popular vote in every presidential election since 1984. (The report notes that the popular vote was still being counted when the article went to press.)
“The keys to the White House, he says, are a set of 13 true/false statements,” The Post reports. “If six of them are false, the incumbent party loses the presidency.”
Click on the links above for more details on both forecasting systems.