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Local TV Ad Decline for 2009: 7%-11%

Nov 11, 2008  •  Post A Comment

The Television Advertising Bureau predicts a 7% to 11% national decline in local TV advertising in 2009, a downward revision made after the deterioration of economic conditions accelerated in September.
The TVB also predicted a year-over-year decline of 7.1% for 2008 in its Tuesday announcement.
The new data was requested by incoming TVB Chairman Frank Comerford, who asked TVB President Chris Rohrs and his staff to revisit the experts and analysts, who in summer had predicted a decline of 2% to 5% in total spot TV revenues in 2009.
At the time he requested the new data, Mr. Comerford, the president of platform development and commercial operations for the 10 stations of the NBC Local Media Division, said, “We originally looked at 2009 and 2010 as almost a W-shaped recession, a little downtick now with a small false positive for maybe a quarter or so, going back up a little bit, then back down on the deeper side. Now, I see a U,” the local broadcasting veteran said. “I don’t see that false positive in the middle.”
TVB’s new forecast, issued Tuesday, expects a local spot revenue decline of 4% to 8% (compared to the original report’s prediction of a range of up 2% to down 2%). It estimates a national spot-ad decline of 11.5% to 15.5% (versus the original prediction of a decline of 7% to 10%).
Mr. Rohrs said in the announcement that ultimately the 2009-10 landscape will be shaped by consumer confidence and spending, as well as factors such as energy and food prices, debt and credit problems, the real estate market and the performance of the incoming Obama Administration. Key categories would be automotive, political, retail, telecom and financial.
The new estimates were derived from a consensus of Wall Street and financial analysts, station representative firms, and independent TVB research.
(Editor: Baumann)

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