How Could the Polls Have Got It So Wrong?

Nov 9, 2016  •  Post A Comment

The indications of a potential polling disaster were present in the days before Tuesday’s election, but as Politico reports, “Almost no one besides Donald Trump was paying attention.”

“There were surveys showing Trump winning, but they were ignored by most news outlets, dismissed as partisan polls conducted using automated phone technology that eschews calling cell-phone users,” the story reports. “There was a lack of polling conducted right up until the end of the election. If polls are going to be used for predictive purposes … then reliable polling up through the final days of the campaign is essential.”

“Instead, the state polling this year was sparse, especially in the closing days,” the report notes. “Of the 11 states Politico identified as Electoral College battlegrounds earlier this year, four of them didn’t see a nonpartisan, public, live-interview poll for the final week of the campaign: Colorado, Nevada, Ohio and Wisconsin.”

Politico adds: “Taken together, it was a recipe for an epic polling failure.”

We encourage readers to click on the link above to Politico to read the full analysis.

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